Factfulness
Ten reasons we're wrong about the world and
why things are better than you think
Hans Rosling, with Ola and Anna
Sceptre, 2018
Introduction
Test yourself
p. 4
- 9. How many of the world's 1-year-old children today have been
vaccinated against some disease
- A. 20 percent
- B. 50 percent
- C. 80 percent
p. 5
Here are the correct answers: [...] 9: C [..]
Appendix: How did your country do?
p. 272
- Chimpanzees: 33%
- Sweden: 21%
- France: 6%
Chapter One. The Gap Instinct
Chapter Two. The Negativity Instinct
Getting out of the Ditch
The Mega Misconception That "The World Is Getting Worse"
Statistics As Therapy
Extreme Poverty
Life Expectancy
I Was Born in Egypt
p. 59
But today people in Afghanistan and other countries on Level 1
live much longer lives than Swedes did back in 1863.
This is because basic modernizations have reached most people
and improved their lives drastically.
They have plastic bags to store and transport food.
They have plastic buckets to carry water and soap to kill germs.
Most of their children are vaccinated.
On average they live 30 years longer than Swedes did in 1800,
when Sweden was on Level 1.
32 More Improvements
The Negativity Instinct
Warning: Objects in Your Memories Were Worse Than They Appear
Selective Reporting
Feeling, Not Thinking
How to Control the Negativity Instinct
Bad and Better
Expect Bad News
Don't Censor History
I Would Like to Thank...Society
Chapter Three. The Straight Line Instinct
The Most Frightening Graph I Ever Saw
The Mega Misconception That "The World Population
Is Just Increasing and Increasing"
The Straight Line Instinct
The Shape of the Population Curve
Why Is the Population Increasing?
Why Will the Population Stop Increasing?
Future world population by age group
| Age | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|
| | | | | | X |
| 75 | X | X | X | XX | XX |
| 60 | X | X | XX | XX | XX |
| 45 | X | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| 30 | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| 15 | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| Year | 2015 | 2030 | 2045 | 2060 | 2075 |
|---|
On the left, the chart shows the ages of the 7 billion people
alive in 2015: 2 billion were aged 0 to 15,
2 billion aged 15 to 30, and then there were 1 billion each
in the 30 to 45, 45 to 60, and 60 to 75 age groups.
In 2030, there will be 2 billion new 0- to 15-year-olds.
Everyone else will have grown older.
[...] So, without any increase
in the number of children being born,
and without people living for longer,
there will be 1 billion more adults.
The billion new adults come not from new children,
but from children and young adults who have already been born.
In Balance With Nature
p. 88
There was a balance.
It wasn't because humans lived in balance with nature.
Humans died in balance with nature.
Wait. "They" Still Have Many Children
Why More Survivors Lead to Fewer People
Two Public Health Miracles
p. 92
In Egypt in 1960,
30 percent of all children died before their fifth birthday.
The Nile delta was a misery for children,
with all sorts of dangerous diseases and malnutrition.
Then a miracle happened.
The Egyptians built the Aswan Dam,
they wired electricity in people's homes, improved education,
built up primary health care, eradicated malaria,
and made drinking water safe.
Today, Egypt's child mortality rate, at 2.3 percent,
is lower than it was in France or the United Kingdom in 1960.
How to Control the Straight Line Instinct,
or Not All Lines Are Straight
Straight Lines
S-Bends
Slides
Humps
Doubling Lines
How Much of the Curve Do You See?
Chapter Four. The Fear Instinct
Contamination
p. 117
[...] ask yourself: “What kind of evidence
would convince me to change my mind?”
If the answer is “No evidence could ever
change my mind about vaccination”,
then you are putting yourself
outside evidence-based rationality,
outside the very critical thinking
that first brought you to this point.
Chapter Five. The Size Instinct
The Deaths I Do Not See
The Size Instinct
How To Control the Size Instinct
Tuberculosis and Swine Flu
p. 134
Each swine flu death received 82,000 times more attention
than each equally tragic death from TB.
The 80/20 Rule
Divide the Numbers
Chapter Six. The Generalization Instinct
Chapter Seven. The Destiny Instinct
Snowballs in Hell
The Destiny Instinct
How the Rocks Move
Africa Can Catch Up
Babies and Religions
p. 176
Today, Muslim women have on average 3.1 children.
Christian women have 2.7.
There is no major difference betwen the birth rates
of the world great religions.
Everyone's Talking About Sex
How to Control the Destiny Instinct
Slow Change is Not No Change
Be Prepared to Update Your Knowledge
Talk to Grandpa
Collect Examples of Cultural Change
I Don't Have Any Vision
Chapter Eight. The Single Perspective Instinct
Who Can We Trust?
The Single Perspective Instinct
The Professionals: Experts and Activists
Hammers and Nails
Numbers Are Not the Single Solution
Medicine Is Not the Single Solution
The Ideologues
Cuba: the Healthiest of the Poor
The United States: the Sickest of the Rich
Even Democracy Is Not the Single Solution
p. 201
People [...] are often tempted to argue that democracy leads to,
or is even a requirement for, other good things, like peace,
social progress, health improvements, and economic growth.
But here's the thing, and it is hard to accept:
the evidence does not support this stance.
Chapter Nine. The Blame Instinct
Chapter Ten. The Urgency Instinct
Road Blocks and Mental Blocks
The Urgency Instinct
Learn to Control the Urgency Instinct. Special Offer! Today Only!
The Five Global Risks We Should Worry About
p. 237
The five that concern me most are the risks of global pandemic,
financial collapse, world war, climate change, and extreme poverty.
Global Pandemic
p. 238
Serious experts on infectious diseases agree
that a new nasty kind of flu is still the most dangerous threat
to global health.
Alan Smith's TEDx talk,
Tim Berners-Lee's 2009 TED talk,
gapminder,
Essays
Marc Girod
Mon Jun 10 19:06:08 2019